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Chaos & Systems
|Chaos: Making a New Science
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Author: James Gleick
Brand: James Gleick
The million-copy bestseller by National Book Award nominee and Pulitzer Prize finalist James Gleick—the author of Time Travel: A History—that reveals the science behind chaos theory
A work of popular science in the tradition of Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan, this 20th-anniversary edition of James Gleick’s groundbreaking bestseller Chaos introduces a whole new readership to chaos theory, one of the most significant waves of scientific knowledge in our time. From Edward Lorenz’s discovery of the Butterfly Effect, to Mitchell Feigenbaum’s calculation of a universal constant, to Benoit Mandelbrot’s concept of fractals, which created a new geometry of nature, Gleick’s engaging narrative focuses on the key figures whose genius converged to chart an innovative direction for science. In Chaos, Gleick makes the story of chaos theory not only fascinating but also accessible to beginners, and opens our eyes to a surprising new view of the universe.
- Chaos Making a New Science
|The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable
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Author: James Owen Weatherall
Brand: Brand: Tantor Media
After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, "beware of geeks bearing formulas." But as James Weatherall demonstrates, not all geeks are created equal. While many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn't understand their purpose, and didn't care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it's to make them better. Weatherall reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance. We see a geophysicist use a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash. We discover a physicist-run hedge fund that earned 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. And we see how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. Both persuasive and accessible, The Physics of Wall Street is riveting history that will change how we think about our economic future.
Q&A with James Owen Weatherall
Q. What is The Physics of Wall Street all about?
A. Over the past few years, we've heard a lot about a new kind of Wall Street elite known as "quants." These are often physicists and mathematicians who have moved to finance and brought radically new ideas along with them. This book is an attempt to understand these quants and the mathematical models they use to predict market behavior. It's two parts history and one part argument: I tell the surprisingly fun story of how physicists and their ideas made it to Wall Street in the first place, and along the way I argue that this history reveals something important about how we should think about the models and practices they have introduced--especially in light of the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
Q. You say the history is surprisingly fun. Can you give an example?
A. The physicists and mathematicians I write about in the book are (or were) very smart, creative people who put their scientific training to use in surprising new ways. Their stories are fascinating. For instance, Edward Thorp, who invented the modern quantitative hedge fund, was also the first person to prove that card counting could be used to reliably get an edge in blackjack. He spent a good amount of time working the card tables in Las Vegas. And Norman Packard and Doyne Farmer, who started a pioneering financial services firm in the early 1990s, spent their graduate school years at UC Santa Cruz inventing the new science of chaos theory while trying to build a computer to beat the odds in roulette--the profits from which were intended to start a yippie commune in the Pacific Northwest.
Q. What surprised you most about the history you uncovered?
A. One thing that surprised me was that derivatives contracts such as options, futures, and swaps, which are often discussed as though they were a troubling new innovation, have actually been around for thousands of years. For example, scientists have found cuneiform tablets containing records of futures traded by ancient Sumerians. Even the idea of using mathematical methods to price options is quite old. I pick up the story in 1900, with the visionary work of a French physicist named Louis Bachelier, but some strands go back further, to the mid-nineteenth century. Plus, there are some striking historical connections in the book. For instance, I explain the relationship between the invention of nylon and the development of the atomic bomb--and how both influenced at least one physicist's to switch to a financial career. And I tell the story of how the space race and the Vietnam War were partly responsible for many physicists moving to Wall Street banks in the 1980s.
Q. What can this history teach us about models used in finance?
A. If you look at how the physicists and mathematicians who came up with the earliest financial models thought about what they were doing, the role of simplifying assumptions and idealizations becomes very clear. The goal was to get a toehold on some very hard problems, and not to come up with a final, overarching theory of financial markets. Making simplified assumptions can lead to the solution of a problem that you otherwise couldn’t solve--but that solution is only going to be a reliable guide to how the world works when the assumptions you’ve made are approximately true. The important question, and the one that physicists are always trained to ask, is when do your assumptions fail and what happens when they do? I don’t think the importance of this question has been recognized as widely as it should be among the traders who rely on these models.
Q. At the end of the book, you describe an "Economic Manhattan Project." What would that be like?
A. The Economic Manhattan Project was proposed in 2008 by the mathematical physicist and hedge fund manager Eric Weinstein. The idea is that economic and financial security--that is, regulating the economy to avoid future calamities--should be at the very top of our agenda. Yet the resources we devote to physical security, to military technology and defense, far outstrip what we spend on developing better economic theories. In the past, America has set goals--for the original Manhattan Project, the race to the moon, and others--when we have funneled resources into serious innovation. And whenever we have done so, we have succeeded in accomplishing great things. I think it is time to make a similar kind of commitment to developing the next generation of economic models, with the goal of finding radical new ideas to make the economy safer and more robust.
Q. You're a philosophy professor. Why did you write a book about finance?
A. The short answer is simply that I find the history and the ideas fascinating. I have a Ph.D. in physics and I like thinking about how physics can be applied to novel problems. The longer answer is that the issues in this book aren't so far removed from philosophy. Philosophers spend a lot of time thinking about what we can know about the world and how to deal with fundamental uncertainty. Philosophy has a reputation for being abstract and distant from everyday concerns. And sometimes it is. But when it comes to mathematical models, philosophical issues really matter for how we make important economic and financial decisions--decisions that have significant real-world ramifications. And for me, at least, the most interesting and important philosophical questions are those that we face as practicing scientists and policymakers--and even as investors.
- Used Book in Good Condition
|Chaos: A Very Short Introduction
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Author: Lenny Smith
Brand: Oxford University Press
Chaos exists in systems all around us. Even the simplest system can be subject to chaos, denying us accurate predictions of its behavior, and sometimes giving rise to astonishing structures of large-scale order. Here, Leonard Smith shows that we all have an intuitive understanding of chaotic systems. He uses accessible math and physics to explain Chaos Theory, and points to numerous examples in philosophy and literature that illuminate the problems. This book provides a complete understanding of chaotic dynamics, using examples from mathematics, physics, philosophy, and the real world, with an explanation of why chaos is important and how it differs from the idea of randomness. The author's real life applications include the weather forecast, a pendulum, a coin toss, mass transit, politics, and the role of chaos in gambling and the stock market. Chaos represents a prime opportunity for mathematical lay people to finally get a clear understanding of this fascinating concept.
About the Series: Combining authority with wit, accessibility, and style, Very Short Introductions offer an introduction to some of life's most interesting topics. Written by experts for the newcomer, they demonstrate the finest contemporary thinking about the central problems and issues in hundreds of key topics, from philosophy to Freud, quantum theory to Islam.
|A Crude Look at the Whole: The Science of Complex Systems in Business, Life, and Society
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Author: John H. Miller
A top expert explains why a social and economic understanding of complex systems will help society to anticipate and confront our biggest challenges
Imagine trying to understand a stained glass window by breaking it into pieces and examining it one shard at a time. While you could probably learn a lot about each piece, you would have no idea about what the entire picture looks like. This is reductionism--the idea that to understand the world we only need to study its pieces--and it is how most social scientists approach their work.
In A Crude Look at the Whole, social scientist and economist John H. Miller shows why we need to start looking at whole pictures. For one thing, whether we are talking about stock markets, computer networks, or biological organisms, individual parts only make sense when we remember that they are part of larger wholes. And perhaps more importantly, those wholes can take on behaviors that are strikingly different from that of their pieces.
Miller, a leading expert in the computational study of complex adaptive systems, reveals astounding global patterns linking the organization of otherwise radically different structures: It might seem crude, but a beehive's temperature control system can help predict market fluctuations and a mammal's heartbeat can help us understand the "heartbeat" of a city and adapt urban planning accordingly. From enduring racial segregation to sudden stock market disasters, once we start drawing links between complex systems, we can start solving what otherwise might be totally intractable problems.
Thanks to this revolutionary perspective, we can finally transcend the limits of reductionism and discover crucial new ideas. Scientifically founded and beautifully written, A Crude Look at the Whole is a powerful exploration of the challenges that we face as a society. As it reveals, taking the crude look might be the only way to truly see.
- Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life (Princeton Studies in Complexity)
- Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies
- Complexity: A Guided Tour
- Signals and Boundaries: Building Blocks for Complex Adaptive Systems (MIT Press)
- Diversity and Complexity (Primers in Complex Systems)
- Complexity: A Very Short Introduction (Very Short Introductions)
- An Introduction to Agent-Based Modeling: Modeling Natural, Social, and Engineered Complex Systems with NetLogo (MIT Press)
- Thinking in Systems: A Primer
- COMPLEXITY: THE EMERGING SCIENCE AT THE EDGE OF ORDER AND CHAOS
- The End of Theory: Financial Crises, the Failure of Economics, and the Sweep of Human Interaction
|Student Solutions Manual for Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, 2nd edition
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Author: Mitchal Dichter
Brand: Steven H Strogatz Mitchal Dichter
This official Student Solutions Manual includes solutions to the odd-numbered exercises featured in the second edition of Steven Strogatz's classic text Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering. The textbook and accompanying Student Solutions Manual are aimed at newcomers to nonlinear dynamics and chaos, especially students taking a first course in the subject. Complete with graphs and worked-out solutions, this manual demonstrates techniques for students to analyze differential equations, bifurcations, chaos, fractals, and other subjects Strogatz explores in his popular book.
- Student Solutions Manual for Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos 2nd edition
|2018 Weekly Planner: Calendar Schedule Organizer Appointment Journal Notebook and Action day, cute almond blossom cherry flowers art design (2018 Weekly Planners) (Volume 5)
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Author: Creative art planners
This is the special planner which contains an overview of the month, a notes section, The good spreads include space to write your daily schedule as well as a to-do list. You can see 7 days Mon-Sun in the couple page and also see the whole month too.
- Perfect for any use. you can use for personal,work, to do list, small diary for note of the day and all purpose.
- 100 designs++ in the series you can choose any designs as you wish.You can see all designs by Click Creative art planner under the book name on the top of this page.
- Monthly Action plan
- Best for Christmas gift and New Year gift.
- Contains Jan 2018 - Dec 2018
- Light weight. Easy to carry around.
Everyone need to have the best planner since the first of the year.Give it for yourself friends family and co-worker and Have a great year together.
|The Seneca Effect: Why Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid (The Frontiers Collection)
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Author: Ugo Bardi
The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca: "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and the concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the theory to real-world systems, from the mechanics of fracture and the collapse of large structures to financial collapses, famines and population collapses, the fall of entire civilzations, and the most dreadful collapse we can imagine: that of the planetary ecosystem generated by overexploitation and climate change. The final objective of the book is to describe a conclusion that the ancient stoic philosophers had already discovered long ago, but that modern system science has rediscovered today. If you want to avoid collapse you need to embrace change, not fight it. Neither a book about doom and gloom nor a cornucopianist's dream, The Seneca Effect goes to the heart of the challenges that we are facing today, helping us to manage our future rather than be managed by it.
|The End of Certainty
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Author: Ilya Prigogine
Brand: Ilya Prigogine
Time, the fundamental dimension of our existence, has fascinated artists, philosophers, and scientists of every culture and every century. All of us can remember a moment as a child when time became a personal reality, when we realized what a "year" was, or asked ourselves when "now" happened. Common sense says time moves forward, never backward, from cradle to grave. Nevertheless, Einstein said that time is an illusion. Nature's laws, as he and Newton defined them, describe a timeless, deterministic universe within which we can make predictions with complete certainty. In effect, these great physicists contended that time is reversible and thus meaningless.
In this intellectually challenging book, Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine tackles some of the difficult questions that bedevil physicists trying to provide an explanation for the world we observe. How is it, for instance, that basic principles of quantum mechanics--which lack any differentiation between forward and backward directions in time--can explain a world with an "arrow of time" headed unambiguously forward? And how do we escape classical physics' assertion that the world is deterministic? In a sometimes mathematical and frequently mind-bending book, Prigogine explores deterministic chaos, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and even cosmology and the origin of the universe in an attempt to reach an explanation that can reconcile physical laws with subjective reality.
|A Student's Guide to Entropy
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Author: Don S. Lemons
Brand: Don S Lemons
Striving to explore the subject in as simple a manner as possible, this book helps readers understand the elusive concept of entropy. Innovative aspects of the book include the construction of statistical entropy, the derivation of the entropy of classical systems from purely classical assumptions, and a statistical thermodynamics approach to the ideal Fermi and ideal Bose gases. Derivations are worked through step-by-step and important applications are highlighted in over 20 worked examples. Nearly 50 end-of-chapter exercises test readers' understanding. The book also features a glossary giving definitions for all essential terms, a time line showing important developments, and list of books for further study. It is an ideal supplement to undergraduate courses in physics, engineering, chemistry and mathematics.
- A Student s Guide to Entropy
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Author: James B. Dabney
Simulink is a programming language specifically designed for simulating dynamical systems using standard block diagram notation. Designed for readers with the appropriate mathematical preparation that includes a good understanding of the fundamental concepts from introductory experience such as calculus and differential equations, this book presents detailed coverage of programming using Simulink. Beginning with a block diagram tutorial, the book presents an overview of Simulink and describes in detail the procedures for building, editing, and running a Simulink model. The book also provides explanations for debugging techniques, including the interactive debugger; contains an examination of Stateflow™, a Simulink extension that adds the capability to model finite state machines subsystems using a variant of the popular Statecharts formalism; and concludes with an introduction to Real-Time Workshop. For professionals with a career in engineering, control systems, programming, or science.
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